The hottest pulp futures continued to rise, and th

2022-10-02
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Pulp futures continued to rise. Did the growth rate of new pulp production capacity tighten in the late stage

release date: Source: zhuochuang paper (Chang Junting) views: 2736 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: on January 6, 2021, the pulp futures price opened higher and higher, with the highest point of 5960 yuan/ton. The spot market price rose with the market, and the attention of the industry continued to rise. In terms of specific development, supply

on January 6, 2021, pulp futures prices opened higher, with the highest point at 5960 yuan/ton. The spot market price rose with the market, and the attention of the industry continued to rise

in terms of specific development, there is a slight contraction in the supply side, limited increment in the demand side, and many positive supports in the macro side

in terms of supply, China's import of coniferous pulp fell by 1.52% in the first 11 months of 2020, and the pulp inventory in major regions and ports was mainly sorted out; According to the global shipment data, the global shipment volume of coniferous pulp in November decreased by 5.2%, of which the volume shipped to China decreased by 9.6%. The number of days in stock under the standard method decreased by 1 day from the previous month, and the overall supply side was slightly tight. On the demand side, household paper was passively pushed up by the cost side, and stimulated by the second round of price increase letters, the stock of base paper was removed from the stock in a narrow range, which was better than supporting the pulp market. In terms of policy, under the influence of zero import of waste paper at the end of the year, the gap of packaging paper raw materials stimulated domestic and foreign pulp mills to switch to natural color pulp, indirectly supporting the price of needle pulp. From a macro perspective, the completion of the China EU investment agreement negotiations, inflation expectations, vaccines and other positive news supported the market

first, at present, there are relatively many positive news about the rise of the external market, policy and sea freight, supporting the pulp market; Will the supply side of the pulp market continue to tighten in the later stage

the supply of coniferous pulp in the later stage is relatively tight, which is conducive to supporting the pulp market in the later stage.

according to incomplete statistical data from zhuochuang information, the global new pulp production capacity exceeded 45million tons in 2021 and after that, after excluding dissolved pulp, waste pulp and semi chemical pulp, it also exceeded 40million tons (including long-term shutdown in the early stage and planned resumption of production capacity in the near future and later stages), dominated by broad-leaved pulp and chemical mechanical pulp, accounting for 66% of the market share

bleached kraft softwood pulp listed on the Shanghai futures exchange accounts for 11% of the total new pulp production capacity, mainly distributed in Canada, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Germany and other major pulp producing countries. In 2021, there was basically no new production capacity of coniferous pulp. The new production capacity of coniferous pulp in 2022 accounted for 6.42% of the total new production capacity of pulp in 2022. Although the new production capacity of coniferous pulp in 2023 and later accounted for 10% of the total new production capacity of pulp, the new production capacity of Finland and Russia was still in the plan and had not been implemented at present. According to zhuochuang information analysis, from the above data, the new production capacity of needle pulp in the next year is less, and there is more uncertainty about the new production capacity in the next year. On the whole, the supply of needle pulp in the later stage is relatively tight, which is conducive to the later pulp market

China's pulp and paper integration has more new production capacity, but the new production capacity of basic coniferous pulp

China's new production capacity of pulp accounts for about 52% of the world's new production capacity of pulp, of which 2.48 million tons were in 2021, mainly Guangxi Taiyang and Jingui pulp and paper projects, but mainly pulp and paper integration projects. The import dependence of broad-leaved pulp and chemical mechanical pulp is expected to be slightly improved, but China basically has no new coniferous pulp production capacity, Therefore, the supply pressure of domestic coniferous pulp in China has basically not increased

it is difficult to effectively make up for the raw material gap of packaging paper, or support the pulp market

in 2021 and after, the new capacity of global natural color pulp accounted for 5.69% of the total new capacity of pulp, mainly the new capacity of natural color pulp of nine Dragons Paper, Shanying paper and Brazil klabin. As for the raw material gap and price caused by the waste paper import prohibition policy, the new capacity of natural color pulp in the future is difficult to meet the raw material gap of packaging paper. As we all know, chemical pulp production lines can switch production to each other, and the gap of packaging paper raw materials may trigger some production lines to switch to natural color pulp intermittently, thus supporting the market situation of needle pulp

more new capacity of broad-leaved pulp, or drag down the pulp market

in 2021 and after, the new capacity of global broad-leaved pulp accounted for 46.57% of the total new capacity of pulp, of which the new capacity of Brazil, Chile and China accounted for 25.65% of the total new capacity of broad-leaved pulp in 2021. The supply pressure of broad-leaved pulp is relatively large, and both broad-leaved pulp and needle leaf pulp, as raw materials of pulp base paper, have a correlation of more than 0.9 and are highly replaceable, The supply pressure of broad-leaved pulp may affect the market of coniferous pulp

on the whole, there were many new pulp production capacity in the world in 2021, accounting for 17.20% of the total new pulp production capacity in 2021 and after, while broad-leaved pulp accounted for 69.45% of the new pulp production capacity in 2021. It is suggested to pay attention to the interaction between the new pulp production capacity

II. After 2020, entering a new round of pulp and paper investment cycle, does the demand volume of the pulp market in the later stage exceed the pulp supply

according to incomplete statistics of zhuochuang information, as of around December 20, 2020, the new production capacity of main pulp base paper in 2021 and beyond will be more than 28 million tons, of which white cardboard accounts for 62%, household paper accounts for 19%, and cultural paper 18%. In terms of years, about 2.84 million tons of pulp will be consumed in 2021 according to the pulp consumption of each paper type and the annual operating load. In 2021, the global new production capacity of pulp (broad-leaved pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, and coniferous pulp) was calculated according to the operating load, with a total increase of 5.31 million tons. Taking China alone, about 1.83 million tons of pulp supply was increased. In 2021, the foreign new production capacity was concentrated in Brazil's bracell and Chile's Arauco mapa, while the main exporting countries of Brazil and Chile were China. It is expected that China's imports of broad-leaved pulp will continue to increase, and the new production capacity of coniferous pulp is only s? dra Cell V? r? Upgrade and increase production

in 2022 and after, the world has announced that the new production capacity of pulp (excluding dissolved pulp, waste pulp, semi chemical pulp, etc.) is more than 38 million tons, and the downstream has announced that the new production capacity of base paper (specific production line capacity) is more than 23 million tons, while China is mostly the launch of pulp and paper integrated production capacity, and it is expected that the industrial concentration is expected to continue to increase

III. will other factors have an impact in the short term

the profit of downstream base paper has a certain impact on the future market

Table 1 statistical comparison of the gross profit rate of pulp based base paper of main paper types

in December 2020, the average monthly gross profit rate of downstream white card paper was close to 40%, which was at a high level in recent 8 years; And the pressure in the mold, the state of the mixing head and the mixing ratio of household paper have been in a downward trend. At present, the gross profit margin of base paper is about 8%, which is already at a relatively low level; The gross profit of coated paper and double offset paper is in the shock finishing stage. At present, the gross profit rate of base paper is in the central region. The samples used by zhuochuang to analyze the shrinkage and destruction experiment of metal materials. Under the condition of a sharp rise in pulp prices, the profits of medium and large paper mills and paper types with high industrial concentration are relatively less affected because of their strong industrial synergy and relatively superior raw material structure to other paper types; Small and medium-sized paper mills are under great pressure, and the purchase is rigid

the import and export of downstream base paper fell year-on-year, affecting the volume of pulp market

in 2020, except for household paper, the cumulative year-on-year export volume of coated paper, double offset paper and white paperboard all showed a downward trend, while in terms of import volume, the cumulative import volume of double offset paper and coated paper increased significantly. On the whole, low-cost imported paper impacted the base paper market and indirectly affected the pulp market volume

the price rise letters of household paper base paper continue to support the pulp. In the past, China Zhongwang only provided confidence in aluminum extrusion market trading for automobile manufacturing enterprises.

the industry concentration of the downstream household paper market is relatively low. After the linkage rise of imported wood pulp outer disk, futures and spot, the cost of household paper is under pressure. The paper mill continues to issue the price rise letters of household paper. In December 2020, the cumulative rise of yuan/ton, and the stock of paper mill base paper is also effectively removed, Support the confidence of pulp market trading

the cultural paper factory issued the shutdown and overhaul letter, which is not conducive to the stable production of pulp market.

the cultural paper enterprises followed the rise, and the original paper inventory was accumulated in a narrow range. In January, the head enterprise issued the shutdown and overhaul letter, which affected the output of 200000 tons of cultural paper, which is bad for the effective and stable production of pulp market

the policy side is favorable for pulp futures, which in turn supports the offer in the spot market.

under the macro benefits of the completion of the negotiation of the China EU investment agreement, the reduction of the temporary import tariff of imported paper products, the plastic ban, zero import of waste paper in 2021, inflation expectations, vaccines, etc., superimposed on the capital side, the price of pulp futures has risen one after another, supporting the offer in the spot market, but the transaction is more rigid

zhuochuang information point of view

zhuochuang information analysis, the new capacity of pulp in the future is mainly broad-leaved pulp, and the new capacity of coniferous pulp is relatively small in recent years. The suggestions for the future capacity transformation of chemical pulp mainly focus on the natural color pulp. The rising price of pulp drives the downstream base paper enterprises to rise, and the linkage of pulp and paper is "reopened". However, it should also be noted that since 2021, pulp and paper enterprises have entered a new round of investment cycle, and most of them are the production of pulp and paper integrated production capacity. The industry concentration is expected to continue to increase, the self-sufficiency rate of broad-leaved pulp and chemical mechanical pulp is expected to increase, and the new broad-leaved commercial pulp in the later stage may affect the price trend of coniferous pulp

at present, the marginal improvement of fundamentals is general. At present, it is more about the impact of information and capital on pulp Futures - spot - outer market. It is suggested to pay attention to the marginal change of fundamental supply and demand in the later stage, which is mainly reflected in the specific production time and operating load of pulp and paper production capacity; Macro changes are mainly reflected in policy, exchange rate, public health events, etc

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