The hottest pulp market in the future is calm

Experts believe that China has become the second largest paper consumer in the world after the United States, and the consumption of all kinds of paper and paper products accounts for 14% of the world's total consumption; At the same time, China is also a country lacking in forest resources. It is predicted that there will be a demand gap of 10million tons of pulp in China's paper industry this year, and it is inevitable that a large number of paper raw materials depend on imports. Therefore, the international price of papermaking raw materials such as pulp and waste paper is 2.1 a= ω V.................................. formula (2) lattice will have a great impact on China's paper industry. However, from the perspective of the international market, except for China, there is no big growth in pulp demand and no big gap in pulp supply, so it is impossible to change the general trend of pulp prices

from the current market analysis, the following factors may have an impact on the future trend of the pulp Market:

first, whether the paper price can rise synchronously. The price of domestic finished paper has been low for a long time. Due to the rise of pulp price, all kinds of finished paper have increased to varying degrees, especially high-end paper. After all, pulp is the main raw material of the paper industry. Only when pulp and paper interact can a good situation of going hand in hand be formed

the second is the foreign offer and supply

at the beginning of 2004, prices continued to rise. In addition to the factors of the domestic market, the foreign side also contributed to the success of controlling output and shipments and maintaining market balance

third, the demand change of domestic paper mills. If the pulp price continues to rise, many domestic small and medium-sized paper enterprises will have to consider other alternative raw materials due to cost factors, such as domestic pulp and straw pulp. Therefore, once the rise of pulp price is seriously separated from the paper price, resulting in a sharp reduction in demand, the price will be difficult to be strongly supported

fourth, arrival at the port in the later stage. China is a typical spot market, and the quantity of port arrival in the later stage will directly determine the market price at that time. If there is a large number of centralized arrival at the port in the later stage, the market price will be reduced

fifth, the mentality and Strategies of suppliers. Although on June 4, 2015 Bayer materials technology (officially renamed covestro since September 1, 2015) held the "public open day" (hereinafter referred to as "open day") activity of Shanghai polymer research and Development Center (PRDC) on this day, although China has many sources of imported pulp, it is also relatively concentrated in the hands of some identified companies (pulp mills). These companies have the ability to manipulate or influence a certain market, such as Canada moon, Chile Silver Star, Russia Ilim, Indonesia lobule, Brazil Cruz, etc. once one of them adopts unexpected market strategies due to individual factors, it will cause fluctuations in the pulp market

at present, from the perspective of the international market, there is no big demand for pulp. At the same time, the international paper industry generally attaches importance to the recycling of waste paper, so the demand for wood pulp will be reduced. In addition, the production of high-grade paper also has the trend of turning to mechanical pulp, and began to use a large number of recycled waste paper, so the demand for wood pulp is not too large, and the price of wood pulp cannot soar as in previous years; For suppliers, due to production cost factors, the space for pulp price reduction is also limited, and a sharp decline is unlikely to occur

industry experts pointed out that although the international pulp market will be calm in the future, domestic enterprises should change the situation of over reliance on imports in the past and actively seek countermeasures. For example, in order to alleviate the pressure caused by the rise of pulp import prices, they should adopt diversified and long-term contracts and other procurement methods, reasonably adjust the regional structure of imports, and increase the import volume from non-traditional regions such as South America, In order to effectively avoid and mitigate the impact of international pulp price fluctuations

at present, there are many domestic pulp companies, but only a few companies with a certain scale and strength (with an annual operation of more than 300000 tons), and each company has its own advantages, and the brands it operates are quite different. As pulp users, they should choose their most necessary brand suppliers to establish close contact to ensure supply; At the same time, we should pay close attention to market dynamics and correctly analyze market trends in order to reduce market risks and achieve maximum profits

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